Thursday, February 17, 2011

The Home Stretch: Hockey East Week 20 preview

This is the time when Hockey East’s rich should get richer and the poor, poorer. There are only two series left pitting ranked teams against each other (Merrimack-Maine, BC-UNH), which can only mean that Hockey East’s elite have a chance to strengthen their grasp on home-ice advantage while the rest of the conference simply tries to keep up.

Merrimack @, vs. UMass

Coach Mark Dennehy’s squad has found a groove, bringing a physical game to the ice that is unparalleled by any team in the conference, and it’s been responsible for their winning six in a row and 12 of their last 13, besting their previous school record of 17 wins in a season with their current mark of 19 and counting. What should really scare a UMass team trying to preserve a playoff spot, though, is how they’ve done it.
The Minutemen are ranked ninth in total defense in Hockey East, and Merrimack is ranked second in scoring offense. But in games that they’ve won, the Warriors are scoring nearly five goals per game (4.84), including 5.17 during their current win streak - a stat which is bolstered by their 11-2 drubbing of UMass at Lawler Arena just a couple of weeks ago.
While the Warriors are the hottest team in the conference not named Boston College (wins in seven in a row and 14 of 15), the Minutemen are one of the most vulnerable. UMass comes into the series riding a six-game winless streak that should probably also include a four-game losing streak, were it not for Chase Langeraap’s late-game heroics against a reeling Providence team.
UMass sits one point ahead of Vermont for seventh in the conference and three ahead of Providence, but with the two teams looking up at them facing off against vulnerable opponents this weekend, it’s important that the Minutmen make a showing against Merrimack, lest they find themselves on the outside of the Hockey East playoff picture looking in.
To do it, they’ll need to solve Joe Cannata, who now sits alone in first place in the league in wins, and has been the real reason that Merrimack’s gotten to where they are this year. With no Stephane Da Costa (knee) still listed as day-to-day, they’ll also need to stop Chris Barton, Joe Cucci and Jesse Todd, who continue to elevate their games and make their teammates better. If they’re going to do it, they’ll need Paul Dainton to be huge between the pipes and will need Langeraap, Michael Pereira and T.J. Syner to get the offense going.
It’s safe to expect Merrimack to sweep this series, and to do it in convincing fashion. But it’s also that time of year when upsets become the order of the day, and if an over-confident Warrior team shows up, expect them to pay.

Maine @ Lowell

No “good” team in Hockey East has experienced as much adversity as the Black Bears have this year. They’ve lost countless man-games to injury, have lost countless games they should have won or at least tied, and haven’t been able to generate enough consistency as a unit to play anything resembling good defense. They’ve only won one of their last seven games, but for a team in desperate need of a win streak, they couldn’t have a better matchup on their hands.
Excepting a fluky 6-4 victory over Merrimack at Lawler Arena a few weeks back, Lowell has been everything they were expected to be - young, raw, with lots of talent but nothing to make it work together. There’s no denying that they’ve made strides lately, taking leads against Boston College and Northeastern in two of their last four games.
It’s an interesting matchup because Maine needs points to keep itself in contention for home ice, but Lowell’s in prime position to play spoiler. If the RiverHawks get physical, they could throw Tim Whitehead’s squad off of their game and take some points away from the weekend. But if Maine starts skating, neither Marc Boulanger - who’s saved 30 or more shots in each of his last six games - nor Doug Carr are likely to have a chance to stop them.
Don’t expect a sweep in this series - Lowell will be too hungry to make a statement as this year winds down and Maine will be tired from traveling on Friday - but don’t expect the RiverHawks to win it, either. Two points this weekend puts Maine in the playoffs. They’ll get there, but it may not be easy.


Northeastern @, vs. BC

A lot of people may be surprised by Northeastern sitting comfortably in sixth place currently, especially after Greg Cronin’s young squad struggled so mightily early in the year. But a look at their schedule the rest of the way out explains a lot: at Boston College, vs. Boston College, at UNH, vs. UNH, vs. BU, at BU.
This series was already interesting before the Huskies and Eagles turned TD Garden into a sold-out practice rink on Monday in the Beanpot championship, each side netting six goals before Jimmy Hayes put away the game-winner in overtime. Now, it’s just downright exciting.
The Beanpot title game should prove to be an anomaly as the conference’s two best defenses settle in on more familiar turf this weekend. What will be interesting to see is how Cronin and Jerry York coach this series, particularly from a goaltending perspective; Cronin has ridden Chris Rawlings all season long, but York’s shown a willingness to use Parker Milner to relieve John Muse, especially in back-to-backs against physical teams. It’s not that Milner (3-2-0, 2.16  GAA, .921 sv % in six games) hasn’t been good, but he certainly hasn’t been Muse.
Whether or not Northeastern can re-capture the energy they showed in the Beanpot final will determine how they fare this weekend. They’ll need to move as well as they did on Monday to keep up with BC’s skating game, but if they can’t, Rawlings will be up to a huge task trying to ward off the Eagles. There’s little doubt that they’d be happy with a split on the weekend, but after Monday night, it’s hard to believe the Huskies will be content with breaking even. With three points this weekend, Northeastern clinches a playoff spot. Could it happen? Sure. But it’s likely they’ll have to wait another week.

Providence @, vs. BU

We know two things about this series: first, Providence - which hasn’t won a conference game since November 5th - still doesn’t have what it takes. Second, BU - which finished fourth in the Beanpot for the first time in 31 years - is a shell of the 6-0-4 team that landed at number one back in early November.
We don’t know much else. The Terriers have become a team prone to taking shifts, periods and entire weekends off - although prior to the Beanpot they looked a much improved team over their November and December counterparts. The Friars have become a team that just doesn’t have enough to keep up with their opponents in any zone.
Providence is fighting for a playoff spot. BU’s fighting to keep home ice. Neither team’s played with urgency of late. Actually, I’m getting tired just writing this preview. Thank goodness this isn’t the NESN game this week.

UNH @ Vermont

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, UNH was the best team in Hockey East. It matters little that that time was last week and the galaxy was one where teams didn’t have to play Merrimack. What does matter is that Dick Umile likely spent the past week raising hell in practice and that a Vermont team clinging to its Hockey East playoff life is going to be in for the fight of its life over two days at Gutterson Fieldhouse.
Vermont has been the stingiest of Hockey East’s bottom-four teams, getting points in three of its last four games and winning four of its last ten, and if UNH has any designs on taking another opponent lightly as they did Merrimack, they’re in a lot of trouble. Rob Madore hasn’t been great, but he’s been good enough to keep the Cats in a lot of games, but the UVM offense has been slow to ignite, scoring more than two goals only three times in its last 11 games - although two of those have been seven-goal efforts.
Meanwhile, Phil Desimone is still one point shy of 100 for his career, Paul Thompson has a Hobey Baker campaign to keep up, and the rest of UNH’s forwards have benefitted from extended time together and have developed some serious chemistry that could foil the Vermont defense. This series will come down to Madore and Matt Di Girolamo in net for the Wildcats - whoever plays better, wins. And isn’t that the way it should be at this time of year?

No comments:

Post a Comment