Thursday, February 3, 2011

Hockey East Week 16 Preview

Providence @ Vermont

As big as the series one state over is this weekend, Providence and Vermont are fighting for a playoff spot of any kind, and these four points are big ones. The Friars come into the game after earning only one point in their last eight games; three against Maine, two against BC and three against UNH. Coach Tim Army hasn’t given up on his toops yet, saying following Saturday’s 5-1 drubbing at New Hampshire that he felt his team’s been in a lot of the games. But the fact is, they’ve also let a lot of those games get out of hand.
Along with a two-game set with Lowell, this is the only weekend in the second half of the season that Providence doesn’t face a ranked team, and if they want to get into the Hockey East playoffs, they’ll need to take advantage of a streaky Rob Madore, who’s been strong in the first half of weekend sets and has struggled coming back on Saturday night.  In their last five games, the Cats have scored only four goals, and they’ll need more to keep up with a Providence squad that doesn’t struggle to get pucks into the zone.
On the other end, Alex Beaudry has fallen on hard times against Hockey East’s best offenses - not saying much since he spend most of the first half of the season struggling to keep up with the lesser ones. He’s not likely to see much offense from anybody not playing with Sebastian Stalberg, so this weekend may be a good boost for the junior’s confidence.
Expect Army to put Kyle MacKinnon and Ian O’Connor on different lines to generate more of an offensive punch at Gutterson Fieldhouse, but don’t expect it to do a whole lot in the end. This series has split written all over it.

No. 15 Maine @ No. 6 New Hampshire

The marquee series of Hockey East’s second half - at least until the Wildcats and Boston College face off in the last weekend of the season - isn’t doing much to ease Dick Umile’s discomfort over his team not being included in the Beanpot. And that doesn’t bode well for the chances of a Maine team which hasn’t won since skating BC off the ice in the middle of January, but continues to struggle in its own zone and hasn’t gotten any help from its backstop du jour.
Matt DiGirolamo has continued to be strong in net for UNH, but has shown signs of wear and tear in recent weeks, letting in untimely goals and struggling to see the puck as well as he did early in the year. It’s not been entirely his fault; the defense in front of him has been spotty at times, and will get its biggest challenge of 2011 when the Black Bears’ vaunted offense takes the ice. Gustav Nyquist and Spencer Abbott continue to put up points for Maine, but the emergence of Tanner House, Robby Dee and Will O’Neill while Maine has struggled with injuries to some of its top forwards that has kept the team afloat.
On the other side, Paul Thompson, Mike Sislo and Phil DeSimone anchored the Wildcats to five wins in six conference games in January. The re-emergence of the first line has taken a lot of pressure off of the other Wildcat lines, and Austin Block, Dalton Speelman and John Henrion let it show, each accounting for a goal in the team’s 5-1 defeat of Providence.
Maine’s situated between Merrimack at four and Northeastern at six, with only a point between each of those teams. With the Huskies and Warriors squaring off Friday night at Matthews, this series becomes even more important for the Black Bears, who could fall another notch in the conference standings if they’re unable to get points, or could leapfrog BU with a four-point weekend. Don’t think it’s not a big weekend for the home team, though; anything more than two points on the weekend puts UNH alone in first place with a game in hand on Boston College. Maine will come out and fight, but UNH is getting too good at the right time of year. The Black Bears should escape with a point, but anything more than that would be a huge surprise.

No. 12 Merrimack @ Northeastern

It’s not a game for fourth place in Hockey East, it’s just a game for a chance to host a Hockey East quarterfinal. Two of the conference’s best defensive teams facing off with such an important two points on the line may make for a very dull Friday night at Matthews Arena, with neither team looking to take chances, but if they’re able to create space, don’t be surprised to see this one open up. Merrimack, after all, has scored seven three times in its last seven games, and Northeastern has Hockey East’s hottest player, with Wade MacLeod currently on an eight-game conference point streak.
Joe Cucci, Chris Barton and Jesse Todd have come up huge in January for the Warriors, finally giving Mark Dennehy’s team the secondary scoring that they needed to complement Stephane da Costa. But as large as that quartet has become, Chris Rawlings has been larger and better for a much improved Huskies squad that beat the Warriors at Lawler Arena the last time the two teams faced off. Tyler McNeely and Brodie Reid have benefitted from MacLeod’s resurgence, finding more open ice and creating more chances, but it’s Northeastern’s trio of freshman defensemen - Anthony Bitetto, Luke Eibler and Jamie Oleksiak - that have really gotten the Huskies to where they are.
Merrimack may be the most complete team in Hockey East, because not only can they score almost at will - they’re averaging five goals a game through eight 2011 contests - but Joe Cannata has been everything that the team needed him to be this year, and that’s on a team that wasn’t expected to do an awful lot of scoring in the first place. Don’t knock Northeastern, though; the Huskies come into the game playing very well at home of late and on a five-game unbeaten streak, the nation’s third-longest active record. It may not be a barn-burner at Matthews, but somebody’s definitely getting burned. Look for the Huskies to pick up two huge points.

UMass @ No. 1 Boston College, @ No. 12 Merrimack

The perils of being a bottom-four Hockey East team? None of them have an easy out as they battle for two remaining playoff spots. UMass struggled to earn a point from Northeastern last weekend, and now they have to visit Conte Forum and Lawler Arena on a tough weekend road trip. Expect Paul Dainton to see a lot of rubber in the two games, and expect him to watch an equally high amount of rubber ripple the twine behind him, because all BC and Merrimack do is score. And play defense. And win neutral zone battles. And get better goaltending than their opposition. And out-skate their opponents. And win puck battles. Face it, past Michael Perreira and Daniel Hobbs, the Minutemen don’t score. Dainton’s strong between the pipes, but BC and Merrimack get a lot of shots on net and are quick enough to create countless odd-man chances - rehashing BC’s ability to get goals from anyone, anywhere would be redundant at this point. UMass is playing close enough to the edge to be desperate, and it’s possible that the Eagles fall victim to the trap - and the triangle - with the Beanpot looming, but don’t expect Merrimack to fold against another inferior opponent at home. UMass gets a point in a tie with BC, but nothing more.

Lowell @ No. 14 BU

The Terriers and the Eagles both have the misfortune of getting trap games before the Beanpot. Jerry York’s squad is well-coached enough to handle it properly, but it’s tough not to question how their Comm Ave counterparts are going to take what they’re presented with on Friday night. The last time Lowell played at Agganis, they ran the Terriers to overtime before falling. That was in the midst of a school-record worst 13-game losing streak. The RiverHawks are little better now, but they are a team playing better together, even if they refuse to give Doug Carr and Marc Boulanger a chance in their own zone.
Lowell can score - they showed that against Merrimack, but they can’t defend. And when BU opens up, they’re as offensively strong as any other team in Hockey East. It’s a contest that will come down to goaltending, as Kieran Millan has been good but not great and both of Lowell’s freshman netminders have been overmatched against any and all competition this year. If the defense can give Carr/Boulanger some support, the RiverHawks might be able to get a point or two out of this trap. They won’t, but they might be able to.

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