Hockey East Week 21 Preview

With six teams in and one team out, three teams are fighting for Hockey East’s last two playoff spots. For reeling UMass, seeing maroon and gold all weekend isn’t likely to help their chances, while Vermont figures to have their hands full with BU as well. Providence, on the other hand, finally gets a break from its beast of a second-half schedule as they take on Lowell in a home-and-home that they need to sweep to stay in the hunt.
On the other end of the standings, there are still three home-ice spots up for grabs. Merrimack and BC could take two of them simply by taking a point in either game this weekend - or any game the rest of the way, for that matter. BU - which holds the tiebreaker over Maine - can do it with any combination of three points (win and a tie this weekend, win and a Maine loss, tie and a Merrimack sweep of Maine, among others).
But don’t underestimate Maine. Or, for that matter, Northeastern.

NU @, vs. UNH

I wrote two weeks ago that the last three weeks of the season feature only two matchups between ranked opponents. This may as well be a third. Without head coach Greg Cronin, the Huskies took it to BC last weekend, tying at Conte Forum and never trailing en route to a 2-1 win on home ice against the then-numbed one Eagles on Saturday. Northeastern again received votes in the USCHO poll this week - not nearly enough to get them ranked, but I digress - and could possibly make an appearance in next week’s top 20 if they’re able to get the offense that showed up in the Beanpot final and game one of the weekend series to show up with the defense that nearly blanked BC on Saturday night.
UNH proved two weeks ago that they’re vulnerable when playing a physical team, because they’re far too finesse to be successful in such matchups - one of the reasons, perhaps, that they’re a regular early out in March. Northeastern isn’t as talented offensively as Merrimack, and Chris Rawlings probably isn’t quite as good as Joe Cannata, but they play a similar style. The finesse game suits UNH on the big sheet at the Whitt, but in tight spaces at Matthews, they may be in trouble. The trick to this series for the Wildcats? Get two points on Friday at home, and don’t get complacent on Saturday. If the Huskies can get to Matt Di Girolamo on Friday, though, it could be another very long weekend for Dick Umile’s squad.
The matchup to watch is UNH’s first line of Paul Thompson, Mike “The Sizzler” Sislo and Phil Desimone against Northeastern’s Anthony Bitetto and Luke Eibler. Northeastern’s top pairing has had success throughout the second half of the year slowing down opposing top lines, and they’ll need to do the same here.UNH can score with any line they want, but if the pressure falls on the second and third lines to light up the scoreboard, Northeastern should be able to take the play to UNH. Look out for Huskies captain Tyler McNeely, who’s one point shy of 100 for his career, and Wade MacLeod, who had an 11-game in-conference scoring streak snapped on Saturday.

Merrimack @ Maine

This was supposed to be the big matchup of the weekend before Northeastern burst onto the scene in the Beanpot final and then upended BC on Saturday. It’s still a very big matchup. But if you’re Tim Whitehead, it’s gotta be making you lose sleep at night. With Northeastern two points behind Maine - and with no reason to see why the Huskies can’t at least take two points this weekend - the pressure is suddenly on the Black Bears to not get swept and slip into sixth in the conference. Think that’s crazy talk? Think again.
Merrimack’s second in scoring and first in defense in Hockey East (thanks, Beanpot). Maine is sixth in defense, but no team below them has a chance at finishing above seventh place, and that’s saying something. The Black Bears are a team that’s strong through the neutral zone and on the attack, but they’re not a team that plays well in their own zone. And against a physical team like Merrimack, they’re bound to have even more trouble.
That said, a Maine sweep this weekend would put them all but clear of Northeastern and right in contention for home ice in the quarterfinals. And nobody wants to go to Alfond for a weekend and try to win two of three. Not even Merrimack. But don’t expect that to happen. Joe Cannata’s been too good, Chris Barton, Jesse Todd and Joe Cucci have had superlative second halves and the Warriors should get leading scorer Stephane Da Costa back from a knee injury this weekend as well. The matchup to watch is anytime one of those four strong, quick forwards are flying through the neutral zone at Dan Sullivan or Martin Oullette or Shawn Sirman or whichever Mainer wins the pre-game promotion and gets to play goal for the Black Bears for the night. Don’t expect Maine’s defense to do anything to slow them down. And don’t expect Gustav Nyquist or Spencer Abbott or Tanner House or Brian Flynn to have their way with Cannata like they did with Lowell’s goaltending last weekend. Home ice or not, this weekend should be a wash.

UMass @, vs. BC

If UMass has spent the past few months searching for an identity (and they have), this isn’t the place to find it. The Eagles will be angry and hungry after suffering what may well be their last loss of the 2010-11 season Saturday night, and the Minutemen are going to have to hope that they can weather the storm to get any points out of the weekend.
If they can, it’s going to be up to Paul Dainton, who’s been strong but not spectacular in net throughout the season for UMass. But Chris Kreider, Brian Gibbons, Jimmy Hayes, Cam Atkinson and Joe Whitney are likely to have other thoughts on the matter. UMass’ biggest hope in this series involves them seeing Parker Milner in net for BC in one of the games and playing the role of spoiler - if not, it may be their season that winds up spoiled.

Lowell @, vs. Providence

I’m not sure that this series is worth a comment. Thanks to Hockey East commissioner Joe Bertanga for only making me have to write previews on four series this weekend, though. The whole five-previews-in-one-post thing was getting a bit much.
Also, if Providence doesn’t get at least three points from this weekend, a) they’re all but out of the playoffs and b) they don’t deserve to be there, anyway. That’s all you need to know.

Vermont @ BU

Vermont did one thing really well against UNH last weekend. That one thing: score first. Problem for them was, UNH is a third-period team. BU isn’t. If the Cats can get something going early against Kieran Millan, they stand a chance against the Terriers. If they can get three points, they’ll earn a playoff berth.
Vermont did a lot of things poorly last weekend. Those lot of things: everything after they scored first. BU isn’t a team that likes to get pushed to the outside, and Vermont didn’t make any efforts to make UNH work from the walls last weekend. It’s not a combination that looks good for the Catamounts.
Meanwhile, after an embarassing loss to Harvard in the Beanpot consolation game, BU bounced back last weekend, winning 2-1 and 1-0 over a Providence squad that a good team would have beaten 4-0 and 6-2.
It’s identity check time for both teams. Which means it’s identity check time for Rob Madore, who’s been good-but-not-great for Vermont; and it’s identity check time for BU’s upperclassmen, most of whom won’t be around next year after they leave early for the NHL or parts unknown, but who could make a big statement over the next six weeks if they re-commit themselves.
It’s also identity check time for Jack Parker - who, as we all now know, may be coaching for his job. Home ice shouldn’t be a concern for BU in this series; winning with energy should. Because if they don’t win with energy, they’re going to lose with disgrace again.