Thursday, March 10, 2011

Hockey East Playoffs: Quarterfinals Picks

Boston College over UMass in two games

You don’t need to know much about this series. Simply look at the history; BC swept UMass this year. BC’s won two of the last three national titles. BC swept UNH last weekend. Boston College has won eight of its last ten games, 11 of its last 13 and 18 of 22. UMass, meanwhile, hasn’t won in twelve games. They’ve earned three out of a possible 24 points.
Sure, two of BC’s wins over UMass this year were by two goals, but that’s not nearly encouragement enough to think that the Minutemen could steal a game in this series. BC has their eyes on bigger prizes, for sure. But as long as they focus on this one, there isn’t much that can stop them.

UNH over UVM in three games

UNH went 2-0-1 against Vermont this year. When they won, they won handily; 5-1 and 6-1. When they tied, they didn’t bother showing up. Which sounds a lot like what UNH normally does in March. There are no ties this time of year, so the Wildcats would be well-served to show up early and often and put an anemic Vermont offense in a position where it can’t catch up.
Vermont’s defense isn’t stellar. Rob Madore’s going to need to have the weekend of his career for the Cats to advance. Vermont’s D will have to have a spotlight on Paul Thompson, who has 5-11=16 totals against the Cats in his career. But if they can keep the games low-scoring, doubt will creep into the minds of the home team and it could be their undoing.
At the end of the day, this UNH team is too experienced and too hungry to lose this series, but they’ve experience enough heartbreaks to get shaken if they go down early in a game or lose Friday night. Whoever scores first will play a huge role in who wins these games.

Northeastern over Boston University in three games

Yes, they’ve played seven straight one-goal games. Yes, BU’s won five of them. Yes, BU’s 5-2 all-time against Northeastern in the Hockey East playoffs. Yes, BU was the hottest team in the conference before falling to the Huskies on Saturday night at Agganis. Yes, they’re 15-3-4 against Northeastern in the last five seasons.
But the emotional boost that Northeastern gets from the return of Greg Cronin will help. A lot. Enough, probably, to earn them game one of the series. BU’s been lackadaisical with a lead, but hasn’t shown much urgency when trailing, either. The Terriers have relied on their freshmen and junior Alex Chiasson to get the job done this year, while the Huskies rely on their senior leadership to light the lamp and their young guys to keep the other team off the board. Kieran Millan has been suspect in big games. Chris Rawlings has risen to the occasion whenever called upon.
If Northeastern takes Thursday’s game one, expect BU to look a little like deer in headlights. And don’t expect them to respond well.

Maine over Merrimack in three games

Only one team in this series is playing for an NCAA tournament berth. It’s also the team that peaked at the right time of year. Maine proved that they can beat Merrimack by getting behind the forecheck, and don’t expect them not to do so again. Sure, Merrimack’s solid at home - 12-2-2 on the season. Sure, they get Stephane Da Costa back, and they’re 19-5-4 with him in the lineup.
But this comes down to goaltending, just like everything else at this time of year does. Joe Cannata’s been a shell of himself the past few weeks, and Dan Sullivan has been hulking up for the playoffs. That, of course, can change. And change quickly and easily. And if it does, this is easily Merrimack’s series.
But you can’t predict that. And until you can, this is Maine’s series to lose. They have more post-season experience on the ice and on the bench than does Merrimack, and they have the ability to let Merrimack beat themselves, which is an upper hand that the Warriors don’t hold over Maine.

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